Arkansas State
W-L: (29-25) PR = 95.5238Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 213 H Stony Brook CA (22-27, 92.5) 4- 0 213 H Stony Brook CA (22-27, 92.5) 9- 8 215 H Stony Brook CA (22-27, 92.5) 12- 5 217 H Campbell CA (40-17, 95.4) 6- 2 220 A Wright State HL (10-12, 94.1) 2- 3 221 H Eastern Illinois OV ( 8- 7, 93.8) 11- 3 222 H Eastern Illinois OV ( 8- 7, 93.8) 9- 2 224 A Arkansas SEC (38-25, 97.5) 12- 4 225 A Arkansas SEC (38-25, 97.5) 0- 1 227 H Arkansas Pine Bluff SWAC ( 5-10, 92.4) 11- 3 228 H Arkansas Pine Bluff SWAC ( 5-10, 92.4) 10- 0 301 H Arkansas Pine Bluff SWAC ( 5-10, 92.4) 7- 2 303 H UL Monroe SB (31-23, 94.6) 10- 5 304 H Lamar SL (11-13, 93.3) 8- 1 307 A Oral Roberts SM ( 6-15, 91.0) 3- 4 307 A Oral Roberts SM ( 6-15, 91.0) 2- 3 308 A Oral Roberts SM ( 6-15, 91.0) 7- 0 310 A Little Rock OV (16-12, 93.9) 12- 5 313 H Southern Miss SB (40-20, 96.6) 8- 5 314 H Southern Miss SB (40-20, 96.6) 1- 7 315 H Southern Miss SB (40-20, 96.6) 5- 2 320 A Georgia State SB (26-30, 93.6) 2- 5 321 H South Alabama SB (33-24, 95.2) 13- 6 322 A Georgia State SB (26-30, 93.6) 5- 9 327 H Janes Madison SB (20-31, 92.1) 11- 9 328 H Janes Madison SB (20-31, 92.1) 10-11 329 H Janes Madison SB (20-31, 92.1) 2- 1 331 A Memphis AME (27-30, 94.4) 9-11 402 A Troy SB (40-31, 96.2) 4- 6 403 A Troy SB (40-31, 96.2) 6- 4 404 A Troy SB (40-31, 96.2) 4- 6 407 A Oral Roberts SM ( 6-15, 91.0) 12-10 410 A Florida Atlantic AME (28-26, 93.8) 7-17 411 H Coastal Carolina SB (35-24, 95.5) 3- 4 412 H Coastal Carolina SB (35-24, 95.5) 6- 3 414 A Southern Illinois MV ( 6- 8, 90.6) 11- 5 417 A UL Monroe SB (31-23, 94.6) 3- 2 418 A UL Monroe SB (31-23, 94.6) 2- 3 419 A UL Monroe SB (31-23, 94.6) 4- 1 421 H Central Arkansas AS (31-25, 92.7) 20-10 424 H Louisiana SB (40-27, 95.1) 2- 3 425 H Louisiana SB (40-27, 95.1) 5-11 426 H Louisiana SB (40-27, 95.1) 8- 3 501 A Old Dominion SB (28-25, 93.3) 0- 8 501 A Old Dominion SB (28-25, 93.3) 6- 0 503 A Old Dominion SB (28-25, 93.3) 4- 5 505 A Little Rock OV (16-12, 93.9) 12- 0 508 H Texas State SB (36-27, 95.0) 2- 6 509 H Texas State SB (36-27, 95.0) 3- 8 510 H Texas State SB (36-27, 95.0) 9-15 512 A Michigan State B10 (26-28, 95.0) 2- 5 514 H Dallas Baptist 10-13 515 H Dallas Baptist 2-10 516 A South Alabama SB (33-24, 95.2) 2- 6
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
213 H Stony Brook 4- 0 4 4 0.26
213 H Stony Brook 9- 8 1 4 - -2.74
215 H Stony Brook 12- 5 7 4 + 3.26
217 H Campbell 6- 2 4 1 + 3.16
220 A Wright State 2- 3 -1 1 -1.72
221 H Eastern Illinois 11- 3 8 2 ++ 5.60
222 H Eastern Illinois 9- 2 7 2 ++ 4.60
224 A Arkansas 12- 4 8 -3 +++ 10.67
227 H Arkansas Pine Bluff 11- 3 8 4 ++ 4.21
228 H Arkansas Pine Bluff 10- 0 10 4 +++ 6.21
301 H Arkansas Pine Bluff 7- 2 5 4 1.21
303 H UL Monroe 10- 5 5 2 + 3.42
304 H Lamar 8- 1 7 3 ++ 4.06
307 A Oral Roberts 3- 4 -1 4 -- -4.89
307 A Oral Roberts 2- 3 -1 4 -- -4.89
308 A Oral Roberts 7- 0 7 4 + 3.11
310 A Little Rock 12- 5 7 1 +++ 6.09
313 H Southern Miss 8- 5 3 0 + 3.43
314 H Southern Miss 1- 7 -6 0 -- -5.57
315 H Southern Miss 5- 2 3 0 + 3.43
320 A Georgia State 2- 5 -3 1 -- -4.21
321 H South Alabama 13- 6 7 1 ++ 6.00
322 A Georgia State 5- 9 -4 1 -- -5.21
327 H Janes Madison 11- 9 2 4 - -2.10
328 H Janes Madison 10-11 -1 4 -- -5.10
329 H Janes Madison 2- 1 1 4 - -3.10
331 A Memphis 9-11 -2 0 - -2.48
402 A Troy 4- 6 -2 -1 -0.62
403 A Troy 6- 4 2 -1 + 3.38
404 A Troy 4- 6 -2 -1 -0.62
407 A Oral Roberts 12-10 2 4 -1.89
410 A Florida Atlantic 7-17 -10 1 --- -11.10
411 H Coastal Carolina 3- 4 -1 1 -1.72
412 H Coastal Carolina 6- 3 3 1 + 2.28
414 A Southern Illinois 11- 5 6 4 1.71
417 A UL Monroe 3- 2 1 0 0.77
418 A UL Monroe 2- 3 -1 0 -1.23
419 A UL Monroe 4- 1 3 0 + 2.77
421 H Central Arkansas 20-10 10 3 +++ 6.51
424 H Louisiana 2- 3 -1 1 - -2.12
425 H Louisiana 5-11 -6 1 --- -7.12
426 H Louisiana 8- 3 5 1 + 3.88
501 A Old Dominion 0- 8 -8 2 --- -9.54
501 A Old Dominion 6- 0 6 2 ++ 4.46
503 A Old Dominion 4- 5 -1 2 - -2.54
505 A Little Rock 12- 0 12 1 +++ 11.09
508 H Texas State 2- 6 -4 1 -- -5.18
509 H Texas State 3- 8 -5 1 --- -6.18
510 H Texas State 9-15 -6 1 --- -7.18
512 A Michigan State 2- 5 -3 0 - -2.81
516 A South Alabama 2- 6 -4 0 - -3.65
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 410 A Florida Atlantic 7-17 -10 1 --- -11.10 425 H Louisiana 5-11 -6 1 --- -7.12 501 A Old Dominion 0- 8 -8 2 --- -9.54 509 H Texas State 3- 8 -5 1 --- -6.18 510 H Texas State 9-15 -6 1 --- -7.18 307 A Oral Roberts 3- 4 -1 4 -- -4.89 307 A Oral Roberts 2- 3 -1 4 -- -4.89 314 H Southern Miss 1- 7 -6 0 -- -5.57 320 A Georgia State 2- 5 -3 1 -- -4.21 322 A Georgia State 5- 9 -4 1 -- -5.21 328 H Janes Madison 10-11 -1 4 -- -5.10 508 H Texas State 2- 6 -4 1 -- -5.18 213 H Stony Brook 9- 8 1 4 - -2.74 327 H Janes Madison 11- 9 2 4 - -2.10 329 H Janes Madison 2- 1 1 4 - -3.10 331 A Memphis 9-11 -2 0 - -2.48 424 H Louisiana 2- 3 -1 1 - -2.12 503 A Old Dominion 4- 5 -1 2 - -2.54 512 A Michigan State 2- 5 -3 0 - -2.81 516 A South Alabama 2- 6 -4 0 - -3.65 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 224 A Arkansas 12- 4 8 -3 +++ 10.67 228 H Arkansas Pine Bluff 10- 0 10 4 +++ 6.21 310 A Little Rock 12- 5 7 1 +++ 6.09 421 H Central Arkansas 20-10 10 3 +++ 6.51 505 A Little Rock 12- 0 12 1 +++ 11.09 221 H Eastern Illinois 11- 3 8 2 ++ 5.60 222 H Eastern Illinois 9- 2 7 2 ++ 4.60 227 H Arkansas Pine Bluff 11- 3 8 4 ++ 4.21 304 H Lamar 8- 1 7 3 ++ 4.06 321 H South Alabama 13- 6 7 1 ++ 6.00 501 A Old Dominion 6- 0 6 2 ++ 4.46 215 H Stony Brook 12- 5 7 4 + 3.26 217 H Campbell 6- 2 4 1 + 3.16 303 H UL Monroe 10- 5 5 2 + 3.42 308 A Oral Roberts 7- 0 7 4 + 3.11 313 H Southern Miss 8- 5 3 0 + 3.43 315 H Southern Miss 5- 2 3 0 + 3.43 403 A Troy 6- 4 2 -1 + 3.38 412 H Coastal Carolina 6- 3 3 1 + 2.28 419 A UL Monroe 4- 1 3 0 + 2.77 426 H Louisiana 8- 3 5 1 + 3.88 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 28.92
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Stony Brook (22-27, 92.5) 4- 0 -7.44 10.99 -0.68 0.56 11.47
3 H Stony Brook (22-27, 92.5) 9- 8 -7.44 10.99 -0.68 0.56 11.47
3 H Stony Brook (22-27, 92.5) 12- 5 -7.44 10.99 -0.68 0.56 11.47
3 H Campbell (40-17, 95.4) 6- 2 -4.54 13.89 -0.68 0.56 14.70
3 A Wright State (10-12, 94.1) 2- 3 -5.77 12.65 0.68 0.56 -1.42
3 H Eastern Illino ( 8- 7, 93.8) 11- 3 -6.10 12.32 -0.68 0.56 12.95
3 H Eastern Illino ( 8- 7, 93.8) 9- 2 -6.10 12.32 -0.68 0.56 12.95
3 A Arkansas (38-25, 97.5) 12- 4 -2.38 16.04 0.68 0.56 18.60
3 A Arkansas (38-25, 97.5) 0- 1 -2.38 16.04 0.68 0.56 -0.48
3 H Arkansas Pine ( 5-10, 92.4) 11- 3 -7.49 10.93 -0.68 0.56 11.41
3 H Arkansas Pine ( 5-10, 92.4) 10- 0 -7.49 10.93 -0.68 0.56 11.41
3 H Arkansas Pine ( 5-10, 92.4) 7- 2 -7.49 10.93 -0.68 0.56 11.41
3 H UL Monroe (31-23, 94.6) 10- 5 -5.28 13.14 -0.68 0.56 13.87
3 H Lamar (11-13, 93.3) 8- 1 -6.64 11.79 -0.68 0.56 12.36
3 A Oral Roberts ( 6-15, 91.0) 3- 4 -8.95 9.48 0.68 0.56 -2.30
3 A Oral Roberts ( 6-15, 91.0) 2- 3 -8.95 9.48 0.68 0.56 -2.30
3 A Oral Roberts ( 6-15, 91.0) 7- 0 -8.95 9.48 0.68 0.56 11.30
3 A Little Rock (16-12, 93.9) 12- 5 -5.97 12.46 0.68 0.56 14.61
3 H Southern Miss (40-20, 96.6) 8- 5 -3.27 15.15 -0.68 0.56 16.10
3 H Southern Miss (40-20, 96.6) 1- 7 -3.27 15.15 -0.68 0.56 -1.10
3 H Southern Miss (40-20, 96.6) 5- 2 -3.27 15.15 -0.68 0.56 16.10
3 A Georgia State (26-30, 93.6) 2- 5 -6.26 12.16 0.68 0.56 -1.55
3 H South Alabama (33-24, 95.2) 13- 6 -4.71 13.72 -0.68 0.56 14.51
3 A Georgia State (26-30, 93.6) 5- 9 -6.26 12.16 0.68 0.56 -1.55
3 H Janes Madison (20-31, 92.1) 11- 9 -7.80 10.63 -0.68 0.56 11.07
3 H Janes Madison (20-31, 92.1) 10-11 -7.80 10.63 -0.68 0.56 -2.36
3 H Janes Madison (20-31, 92.1) 2- 1 -7.80 10.63 -0.68 0.56 11.07
3 A Memphis (27-30, 94.4) 9-11 -5.53 12.90 0.68 0.56 -1.35
3 A Troy (40-31, 96.2) 4- 6 -3.68 14.75 0.68 0.56 -0.83
3 A Troy (40-31, 96.2) 6- 4 -3.68 14.75 0.68 0.56 17.16
3 A Troy (40-31, 96.2) 4- 6 -3.68 14.75 0.68 0.56 -0.83
3 A Oral Roberts ( 6-15, 91.0) 12-10 -8.95 9.48 0.68 0.56 11.30
3 A Florida Atlant (28-26, 93.8) 7-17 -6.15 12.28 0.68 0.56 -1.52
3 H Coastal Caroli (35-24, 95.5) 3- 4 -4.42 14.01 -0.68 0.56 -1.42
3 H Coastal Caroli (35-24, 95.5) 6- 3 -4.42 14.01 -0.68 0.56 14.83
3 A Southern Illin ( 6- 8, 90.6) 11- 5 -9.34 9.08 0.68 0.56 10.85
3 A UL Monroe (31-23, 94.6) 3- 2 -5.28 13.14 0.68 0.56 15.37
3 A UL Monroe (31-23, 94.6) 2- 3 -5.28 13.14 0.68 0.56 -1.28
3 A UL Monroe (31-23, 94.6) 4- 1 -5.28 13.14 0.68 0.56 15.37
3 H Central Arkans (31-25, 92.7) 20-10 -7.19 11.24 -0.68 0.56 11.75
3 H Louisiana (40-27, 95.1) 2- 3 -4.82 13.61 -0.68 0.56 -1.53
3 H Louisiana (40-27, 95.1) 5-11 -4.82 13.61 -0.68 0.56 -1.53
3 H Louisiana (40-27, 95.1) 8- 3 -4.82 13.61 -0.68 0.56 14.38
3 A Old Dominion (28-25, 93.3) 0- 8 -6.59 11.84 0.68 0.56 -1.64
3 A Old Dominion (28-25, 93.3) 6- 0 -6.59 11.84 0.68 0.56 13.92
3 A Old Dominion (28-25, 93.3) 4- 5 -6.59 11.84 0.68 0.56 -1.64
3 A Little Rock (16-12, 93.9) 12- 0 -5.97 12.46 0.68 0.56 14.61
3 H Texas State (36-27, 95.0) 2- 6 -4.88 13.54 -0.68 0.56 -1.55
3 H Texas State (36-27, 95.0) 3- 8 -4.88 13.54 -0.68 0.56 -1.55
3 H Texas State (36-27, 95.0) 9-15 -4.88 13.54 -0.68 0.56 -1.55
3 A Michigan State (26-28, 95.0) 2- 5 -4.86 13.57 0.68 0.56 -1.16
3 A South Alabama (33-24, 95.2) 2- 6 -4.71 13.72 0.68 0.56 -1.12
------
354.81
|
winning pts = 388.3699 losing points = -33.5596
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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