Saint Mary's
W-L: (36-27) PR = 94.5705Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 213 H Creighton BE (32-25, 94.4) 3-11 214 H Creighton BE (32-25, 94.4) 7- 2 214 H Creighton BE (32-25, 94.4) 8- 9 220 A Campbell CA (40-17, 95.4) 8- 3 221 H Cal State Northridge BW (24-29, 93.6) 7-12 222 H Cal State Northridge BW (24-29, 93.6) 12- 0 224 A Cal State Bakersfield BW (24-27, 92.9) 10- 8 226 H San José State MW (12-11, 94.4) 5- 4 227 H San José State MW (12-11, 94.4) 15- 5 228 A San José State MW (12-11, 94.4) 0- 8 301 H East Carolina AME (36-25, 96.7) 13- 0 303 A Missouri State CUSA (35-19, 96.3) 7- 7 306 H Arizona State B12 (38-21, 97.6) 2-12 307 A San Diego State MW (15-16, 92.9) 12- 9 308 A San Diego State MW (15-16, 92.9) 9- 6 310 A UC Santa Barbara BW (40-22, 96.3) 3-13 313 A Rice AME (31-26, 94.3) 5- 6 314 A Grand Canyon MW (11-16, 93.1) 8- 9 315 H Rice AME (31-26, 94.3) 11- 8 315 A Grand Canyon MW (11-16, 93.1) 3- 6 320 H Pepperdine WC (21-33, 91.5) 9- 8 321 A Baylor B12 (26-27, 94.7) 5- 3 322 H Pepperdine WC (21-33, 91.5) 1- 7 324 H UC Santa Barbara BW (40-22, 96.3) 10- 4 327 A Portland WC (24-27, 93.3) 3- 0 328 A Portland WC (24-27, 93.3) 5- 8 329 A Portland WC (24-27, 93.3) 1- 6 402 H Pacific WC (23-30, 92.4) 11- 4 403 H Pacific WC (23-30, 92.4) 6- 4 404 H Pacific WC (23-30, 92.4) 2- 1 406 A UC Davis BW (27-26, 93.9) 1- 4 408 A Northwestern B10 (20-30, 92.5) 14-15 410 H Louisiana SB (40-27, 95.1) 8- 1 411 A Santa Clara WC (24-30, 93.4) 8- 4 412 A Santa Clara WC (24-30, 93.4) 15-11 413 H Nevada MW ( 6-13, 92.9) 16-10 417 H Gonzaga WC (35-19, 95.7) 2- 7 418 H Gonzaga WC (35-19, 95.7) 4-14 419 H Gonzaga WC (35-19, 95.7) 5- 6 421 A Nevada MW ( 6-13, 92.9) 11- 5 424 A San Diego WC (20-30, 92.6) 10- 4 425 A San Diego WC (20-30, 92.6) 14- 3 426 A San Diego WC (20-30, 92.6) 6-16 428 H California ACC (29-24, 95.1) 5- 6 501 H Seattle U WC (16-31, 90.7) 11- 1 502 H Seattle U WC (16-31, 90.7) 7- 8 503 H Seattle U WC (16-31, 90.7) 4- 5 508 A Loyola Marymount WC (14-39, 91.0) 17- 4 509 A Loyola Marymount WC (14-39, 91.0) 8- 6 510 A Loyola Marymount WC (14-39, 91.0) 6- 3 512 A Stanford ACC (29-25, 94.6) 6- 7 514 A California Baptist WAC (23- 9, 96.5) 6- 4 515 A Cal State Bakersfield BW (24-27, 92.9) 3- 4 516 H San Francisco WC (27-31, 91.0) 6- 4 520 A Pepperdine WC (21-33, 91.5) 9- 2 521 A Gonzaga WC (35-19, 95.7) 13- 4 522 H Pacific WC (23-30, 92.4) 10- 7 523 H San Francisco WC (27-31, 91.0) 8- 9 523 A San Francisco WC (27-31, 91.0) 7- 6 529 A UCLA B10 (48-12, 98.4) 3- 2 530 A Cal Poly BW (39-25, 95.3) 1-14 530 A Cal Poly BW (39-25, 95.3) 1-14 531 H Cal Poly BW (39-25, 95.3) 2- 5 531 H UCLA B10 (48-12, 98.4) 6- 5
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
213 H Creighton 3-11 -8 1 --- -8.83
214 H Creighton 7- 2 5 1 ++ 4.17
214 H Creighton 8- 9 -1 1 -1.83
220 A Campbell 8- 3 5 -1 +++ 6.47
221 H Cal State Northridge 7-12 -5 2 --- -6.61
222 H Cal State Northridge 12- 0 12 2 +++ 10.39
224 A Cal State Bakersfield 10- 8 2 1 0.99
226 H San José State 5- 4 1 1 0.14
227 H San José State 15- 5 10 1 +++ 9.14
228 A San José State 0- 8 -8 0 --- -7.51
301 H East Carolina 13- 0 13 -1 +++ 14.49
303 A Missouri State 7- 7 0 -2 + 2.41
306 H Arizona State 2-12 -10 -2 --- -7.60
307 A San Diego State 12- 9 3 1 + 2.04
308 A San Diego State 9- 6 3 1 + 2.04
310 A UC Santa Barbara 3-13 -10 -2 --- -7.64
313 A Rice 5- 6 -1 0 -0.56
314 A Grand Canyon 8- 9 -1 1 -1.80
315 H Rice 11- 8 3 1 + 2.09
315 A Grand Canyon 3- 6 -3 1 - -3.80
320 H Pepperdine 9- 8 1 4 - -2.78
321 A Baylor 5- 3 2 -1 + 2.83
322 H Pepperdine 1- 7 -6 4 --- -9.78
324 H UC Santa Barbara 10- 4 6 -1 +++ 7.01
327 A Portland 3- 0 3 1 + 2.37
328 A Portland 5- 8 -3 1 - -3.63
329 A Portland 1- 6 -5 1 -- -5.63
402 H Pacific 11- 4 7 3 ++ 4.16
403 H Pacific 6- 4 2 3 -0.84
404 H Pacific 2- 1 1 3 -1.84
406 A UC Davis 1- 4 -3 0 - -3.04
408 A Northwestern 14-15 -1 1 - -2.38
410 H Louisiana 8- 1 7 0 +++ 6.83
411 A Santa Clara 8- 4 4 1 + 3.49
412 A Santa Clara 15-11 4 1 + 3.49
413 H Nevada 16-10 6 2 + 3.63
417 H Gonzaga 2- 7 -5 0 -- -4.54
418 H Gonzaga 4-14 -10 0 --- -9.54
419 H Gonzaga 5- 6 -1 0 -0.54
421 A Nevada 11- 5 6 1 ++ 4.98
424 A San Diego 10- 4 6 1 ++ 4.70
425 A San Diego 14- 3 11 1 +++ 9.70
426 A San Diego 6-16 -10 1 --- -11.30
428 H California 5- 6 -1 0 -1.11
501 H Seattle U 11- 1 10 5 ++ 5.49
502 H Seattle U 7- 8 -1 5 -- -5.51
503 H Seattle U 4- 5 -1 5 -- -5.51
508 A Loyola Marymount 17- 4 13 3 +++ 10.07
509 A Loyola Marymount 8- 6 2 3 -0.93
510 A Loyola Marymount 6- 3 3 3 0.07
512 A Stanford 6- 7 -1 -1 -0.34
514 A California Baptist 6- 4 2 -3 ++ 4.59
515 A Cal State Bakersfield 3- 4 -1 1 - -2.01
516 H San Francisco 6- 4 2 4 - -2.26
520 A Pepperdine 9- 2 7 2 ++ 4.57
521 A Gonzaga 13- 4 9 -2 +++ 10.81
522 H Pacific 10- 7 3 3 0.16
523 H San Francisco 8- 9 -1 4 -- -5.26
523 A San Francisco 7- 6 1 3 -1.91
529 A UCLA 3- 2 1 -5 ++ 5.52
530 A Cal Poly 1-14 -13 -1 --- -11.59
530 A Cal Poly 1-14 -13 -1 --- -11.59
531 H Cal Poly 2- 5 -3 0 - -2.94
531 H UCLA 6- 5 1 -3 ++ 4.17
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 213 H Creighton 3-11 -8 1 --- -8.83 221 H Cal State Northridge 7-12 -5 2 --- -6.61 228 A San José State 0- 8 -8 0 --- -7.51 306 H Arizona State 2-12 -10 -2 --- -7.60 310 A UC Santa Barbara 3-13 -10 -2 --- -7.64 322 H Pepperdine 1- 7 -6 4 --- -9.78 418 H Gonzaga 4-14 -10 0 --- -9.54 426 A San Diego 6-16 -10 1 --- -11.30 530 A Cal Poly 1-14 -13 -1 --- -11.59 530 A Cal Poly 1-14 -13 -1 --- -11.59 329 A Portland 1- 6 -5 1 -- -5.63 417 H Gonzaga 2- 7 -5 0 -- -4.54 502 H Seattle U 7- 8 -1 5 -- -5.51 503 H Seattle U 4- 5 -1 5 -- -5.51 523 H San Francisco 8- 9 -1 4 -- -5.26 315 A Grand Canyon 3- 6 -3 1 - -3.80 320 H Pepperdine 9- 8 1 4 - -2.78 328 A Portland 5- 8 -3 1 - -3.63 406 A UC Davis 1- 4 -3 0 - -3.04 408 A Northwestern 14-15 -1 1 - -2.38 515 A Cal State Bakersfield 3- 4 -1 1 - -2.01 516 H San Francisco 6- 4 2 4 - -2.26 531 H Cal Poly 2- 5 -3 0 - -2.94 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 220 A Campbell 8- 3 5 -1 +++ 6.47 222 H Cal State Northridge 12- 0 12 2 +++ 10.39 227 H San José State 15- 5 10 1 +++ 9.14 301 H East Carolina 13- 0 13 -1 +++ 14.49 324 H UC Santa Barbara 10- 4 6 -1 +++ 7.01 410 H Louisiana 8- 1 7 0 +++ 6.83 425 A San Diego 14- 3 11 1 +++ 9.70 508 A Loyola Marymount 17- 4 13 3 +++ 10.07 521 A Gonzaga 13- 4 9 -2 +++ 10.81 214 H Creighton 7- 2 5 1 ++ 4.17 402 H Pacific 11- 4 7 3 ++ 4.16 421 A Nevada 11- 5 6 1 ++ 4.98 424 A San Diego 10- 4 6 1 ++ 4.70 501 H Seattle U 11- 1 10 5 ++ 5.49 514 A California Baptist 6- 4 2 -3 ++ 4.59 520 A Pepperdine 9- 2 7 2 ++ 4.57 529 A UCLA 3- 2 1 -5 ++ 5.52 531 H UCLA 6- 5 1 -3 ++ 4.17 303 A Missouri State 7- 7 0 -2 + 2.41 307 A San Diego State 12- 9 3 1 + 2.04 308 A San Diego State 9- 6 3 1 + 2.04 315 H Rice 11- 8 3 1 + 2.09 321 A Baylor 5- 3 2 -1 + 2.83 327 A Portland 3- 0 3 1 + 2.37 411 A Santa Clara 8- 4 4 1 + 3.49 412 A Santa Clara 15-11 4 1 + 3.49 413 H Nevada 16-10 6 2 + 3.63 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 28.92
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Creighton (32-25, 94.4) 3-11 -5.48 12.94 -0.68 0.45 -1.39
3 H Creighton (32-25, 94.4) 7- 2 -5.48 12.94 -0.68 0.45 11.09
3 H Creighton (32-25, 94.4) 8- 9 -5.48 12.94 -0.68 0.45 -1.39
3 A Campbell (40-17, 95.4) 8- 3 -4.54 13.89 0.68 0.45 13.16
3 H Cal State Nort (24-29, 93.6) 7-12 -6.27 12.16 -0.68 0.45 -1.57
3 H Cal State Nort (24-29, 93.6) 12- 0 -6.27 12.16 -0.68 0.45 10.38
3 A Cal State Bake (24-27, 92.9) 10- 8 -7.01 11.41 0.68 0.45 10.93
3 H San José Stat (12-11, 94.4) 5- 4 -5.52 12.91 -0.68 0.45 11.06
3 H San José Stat (12-11, 94.4) 15- 5 -5.52 12.91 -0.68 0.45 11.06
3 A San José Stat (12-11, 94.4) 0- 8 -5.52 12.91 0.68 0.45 -1.09
3 H East Carolina (36-25, 96.7) 13- 0 -3.16 15.26 -0.68 0.45 13.18
3 A Missouri State (35-19, 96.3) 7- 7 -3.59 14.83 0.68 0.45 0.00
3 H Arizona State (38-21, 97.6) 2-12 -2.26 16.17 -0.68 0.45 -0.66
3 A San Diego Stat (15-16, 92.9) 12- 9 -6.97 11.46 0.68 0.45 10.97
3 A San Diego Stat (15-16, 92.9) 9- 6 -6.97 11.46 0.68 0.45 10.97
3 A UC Santa Barba (40-22, 96.3) 3-13 -3.64 14.78 0.68 0.45 -0.67
3 A Rice (31-26, 94.3) 5- 6 -5.57 12.86 0.68 0.45 -1.11
3 A Grand Canyon (11-16, 93.1) 8- 9 -6.81 11.62 0.68 0.45 -1.39
3 H Rice (31-26, 94.3) 11- 8 -5.57 12.86 -0.68 0.45 11.01
3 A Grand Canyon (11-16, 93.1) 3- 6 -6.81 11.62 0.68 0.45 -1.39
3 H Pepperdine (21-33, 91.5) 9- 8 -8.43 9.99 -0.68 0.45 8.42
3 A Baylor (26-27, 94.7) 5- 3 -5.18 13.25 0.68 0.45 12.58
3 H Pepperdine (21-33, 91.5) 1- 7 -8.43 9.99 -0.68 0.45 -2.06
3 H UC Santa Barba (40-22, 96.3) 10- 4 -3.64 14.78 -0.68 0.45 12.75
3 A Portland (24-27, 93.3) 3- 0 -6.63 11.79 0.68 0.45 11.27
3 A Portland (24-27, 93.3) 5- 8 -6.63 11.79 0.68 0.45 -1.35
3 A Portland (24-27, 93.3) 1- 6 -6.63 11.79 0.68 0.45 -1.35
3 H Pacific (23-30, 92.4) 11- 4 -7.50 10.93 -0.68 0.45 9.27
3 H Pacific (23-30, 92.4) 6- 4 -7.50 10.93 -0.68 0.45 9.27
3 H Pacific (23-30, 92.4) 2- 1 -7.50 10.93 -0.68 0.45 9.27
3 A UC Davis (27-26, 93.9) 1- 4 -6.05 12.38 0.68 0.45 -1.21
3 A Northwestern (20-30, 92.5) 14-15 -7.38 11.04 0.68 0.45 -1.52
3 H Louisiana (40-27, 95.1) 8- 1 -4.82 13.61 -0.68 0.45 11.69
3 A Santa Clara (24-30, 93.4) 8- 4 -6.51 11.91 0.68 0.45 11.38
3 A Santa Clara (24-30, 93.4) 15-11 -6.51 11.91 0.68 0.45 11.38
3 H Nevada ( 6-13, 92.9) 16-10 -7.03 11.40 -0.68 0.45 9.69
3 H Gonzaga (35-19, 95.7) 2- 7 -4.20 14.23 -0.68 0.45 -1.10
3 H Gonzaga (35-19, 95.7) 4-14 -4.20 14.23 -0.68 0.45 -1.10
3 H Gonzaga (35-19, 95.7) 5- 6 -4.20 14.23 -0.68 0.45 -1.10
3 A Nevada ( 6-13, 92.9) 11- 5 -7.03 11.40 0.68 0.45 10.91
3 A San Diego (20-30, 92.6) 10- 4 -7.30 11.12 0.68 0.45 10.66
3 A San Diego (20-30, 92.6) 14- 3 -7.30 11.12 0.68 0.45 10.66
3 A San Diego (20-30, 92.6) 6-16 -7.30 11.12 0.68 0.45 -1.50
3 H California (29-24, 95.1) 5- 6 -4.77 13.66 -0.68 0.45 -1.23
3 H Seattle U (16-31, 90.7) 11- 1 -9.17 9.26 -0.68 0.45 7.76
3 H Seattle U (16-31, 90.7) 7- 8 -9.17 9.26 -0.68 0.45 -2.22
3 H Seattle U (16-31, 90.7) 4- 5 -9.17 9.26 -0.68 0.45 -2.22
3 A Loyola Marymou (14-39, 91.0) 17- 4 -8.93 9.49 0.68 0.45 9.19
3 A Loyola Marymou (14-39, 91.0) 8- 6 -8.93 9.49 0.68 0.45 9.19
3 A Loyola Marymou (14-39, 91.0) 6- 3 -8.93 9.49 0.68 0.45 9.19
3 A Stanford (29-25, 94.6) 6- 7 -5.34 13.08 0.68 0.45 -1.05
3 A California Bap (23- 9, 96.5) 6- 4 -3.42 15.01 0.68 0.45 14.18
3 A Cal State Bake (24-27, 92.9) 3- 4 -7.01 11.41 0.68 0.45 -1.43
3 H San Francisco (27-31, 91.0) 6- 4 -8.91 9.51 -0.68 0.45 7.99
3 A Pepperdine (21-33, 91.5) 9- 2 -8.43 9.99 0.68 0.45 9.64
3 A Gonzaga (35-19, 95.7) 13- 4 -4.20 14.23 0.68 0.45 13.47
3 H Pacific (23-30, 92.4) 10- 7 -7.50 10.93 -0.68 0.45 9.27
3 H San Francisco (27-31, 91.0) 8- 9 -8.91 9.51 -0.68 0.45 -2.17
3 A San Francisco (27-31, 91.0) 7- 6 -8.91 9.51 0.68 0.45 9.21
3 A UCLA (48-12, 98.4) 3- 2 -1.48 16.94 0.68 0.45 15.92
3 A Cal Poly (39-25, 95.3) 1-14 -4.60 13.83 0.68 0.45 -0.89
3 A Cal Poly (39-25, 95.3) 1-14 -4.60 13.83 0.68 0.45 -0.89
3 H Cal Poly (39-25, 95.3) 2- 5 -4.60 13.83 -0.68 0.45 -1.19
3 H UCLA (48-12, 98.4) 6- 5 -1.48 16.94 -0.68 0.45 14.70
------
356.48
|
winning pts = 392.7112 losing points = -36.2290
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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