Murray State
W-L: ( 9-13) PR = 91.8091Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 218 H UNC Wilmington CA (29-28, 94.3) 5-10 220 A Cincinnati B12 (38-21, 96.8) 6- 3 221 H Butler BE (23-30, 91.9) 6- 4 221 H Butler BE (23-30, 91.9) 3- 2 303 H Charleston CA (27-27, 93.1) 2- 6 306 H Marshall SB (24-32, 93.5) 3- 5 307 A UCF B12 (29-26, 96.0) 0- 4 308 A UCF B12 (29-26, 96.0) 9-10 317 A Middle Tennessee CUSA (27-30, 93.4) 5- 3 324 A Kentucky SEC (33-25, 95.9) 4-14 407 H Sacred Heart MAAC ( 2- 6, 87.3) 8-11 421 A Ole Miss SEC (38-25, 97.7) 2-19 426 A Southern Illinois MV ( 6- 8, 90.6) 7- 5 428 H Memphis AME (27-30, 94.4) 9- 5 501 A Purdue B10 (39-18, 96.3) 5- 7 502 A Purdue B10 (39-18, 96.3) 4-11 503 A Purdue B10 (39-18, 96.3) 8-17 512 H North Alabama AS (30-29, 93.4) 9- 5 520 H Illinois State MV ( 4-13, 90.9) 6- 4 521 A Indiana State MV ( 9-14, 92.3) 3- 2 523 A UIC MV ( 7-12, 92.6) 5- 6 523 H Southern Illinois MV ( 6- 8, 90.6) 7- 9
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
218 H UNC Wilmington 5-10 -5 -2 - -3.17
220 A Cincinnati 6- 3 3 -6 +++ 8.63
221 H Butler 6- 4 2 1 1.38
221 H Butler 3- 2 1 1 0.38
303 H Charleston 2- 6 -4 -1 - -3.38
306 H Marshall 3- 5 -2 -1 -1.02
307 A UCF 0- 4 -4 -5 0.86
308 A UCF 9-10 -1 -5 + 3.86
317 A Middle Tennessee 5- 3 2 -2 ++ 4.30
324 A Kentucky 4-14 -10 -5 -- -5.22
407 H Sacred Heart 8-11 -3 5 --- -8.19
421 A Ole Miss 2-19 -17 -7 --- -7.46
426 A Southern Illinois 7- 5 2 1 1.42
428 H Memphis 9- 5 4 -2 ++ 5.89
501 A Purdue 5- 7 -2 -5 + 3.21
502 A Purdue 4-11 -7 -5 -1.79
503 A Purdue 8-17 -9 -5 - -3.79
512 H North Alabama 9- 5 4 -1 ++ 4.92
520 H Illinois State 6- 4 2 2 0.41
521 A Indiana State 3- 2 1 -1 + 2.18
523 A UIC 5- 6 -1 -1 0.50
523 H Southern Illinois 7- 9 -2 2 - -3.93
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 407 H Sacred Heart 8-11 -3 5 --- -8.19 421 A Ole Miss 2-19 -17 -7 --- -7.46 324 A Kentucky 4-14 -10 -5 -- -5.22 218 H UNC Wilmington 5-10 -5 -2 - -3.17 303 H Charleston 2- 6 -4 -1 - -3.38 503 A Purdue 8-17 -9 -5 - -3.79 523 H Southern Illinois 7- 9 -2 2 - -3.93 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 220 A Cincinnati 6- 3 3 -6 +++ 8.63 317 A Middle Tennessee 5- 3 2 -2 ++ 4.30 428 H Memphis 9- 5 4 -2 ++ 5.89 512 H North Alabama 9- 5 4 -1 ++ 4.92 308 A UCF 9-10 -1 -5 + 3.86 501 A Purdue 5- 7 -2 -5 + 3.21 521 A Indiana State 3- 2 1 -1 + 2.18 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 28.92
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H UNC Wilmington (29-28, 94.3) 5-10 -5.59 12.84 -0.68 1.31 -4.12
3 A Cincinnati (38-21, 96.8) 6- 3 -3.13 15.29 0.68 1.31 41.99
3 H Butler (23-30, 91.9) 6- 4 -8.03 10.39 -0.68 1.31 25.55
3 H Butler (23-30, 91.9) 3- 2 -8.03 10.39 -0.68 1.31 25.55
3 H Charleston (27-27, 93.1) 2- 6 -6.79 11.64 -0.68 1.31 -4.91
3 H Marshall (24-32, 93.5) 3- 5 -6.44 11.99 -0.68 1.31 -4.67
3 A UCF (29-26, 96.0) 0- 4 -3.91 14.52 0.68 1.31 -2.12
3 A UCF (29-26, 96.0) 9-10 -3.91 14.52 0.68 1.31 -2.12
3 A Middle Tenness (27-30, 93.4) 5- 3 -6.47 11.96 0.68 1.31 33.22
3 A Kentucky (33-25, 95.9) 4-14 -3.98 14.44 0.68 1.31 -2.17
3 H Sacred Heart ( 2- 6, 87.3) 8-11 -12.61 5.82 -0.68 1.31 -8.73
3 A Ole Miss (38-25, 97.7) 2-19 -2.23 16.20 0.68 1.31 -1.02
3 A Southern Illin ( 6- 8, 90.6) 7- 5 -9.34 9.08 0.68 1.31 25.66
3 H Memphis (27-30, 94.4) 9- 5 -5.53 12.90 -0.68 1.31 32.13
3 A Purdue (39-18, 96.3) 5- 7 -3.56 14.87 0.68 1.31 -1.89
3 A Purdue (39-18, 96.3) 4-11 -3.56 14.87 0.68 1.31 -1.89
3 A Purdue (39-18, 96.3) 8-17 -3.56 14.87 0.68 1.31 -1.89
3 H North Alabama (30-29, 93.4) 9- 5 -6.50 11.93 -0.68 1.31 29.58
3 H Illinois State ( 4-13, 90.9) 6- 4 -9.00 9.43 -0.68 1.31 23.01
3 A Indiana State ( 9-14, 92.3) 3- 2 -7.59 10.84 0.68 1.31 30.27
3 A UIC ( 7-12, 92.6) 5- 6 -7.27 11.16 0.68 1.31 -4.33
3 H Southern Illin ( 6- 8, 90.6) 7- 9 -9.34 9.08 -0.68 1.31 -6.59
------
220.48
|
winning pts = 266.9523 losing points = -46.4692
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
------------------------------------------------------------------------