Mercyhurst
W-L: ( 6-27) PR = 95.3509Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 1003 H Michigan B10 (29- 8, 99.9) 1- 1 1004 H Michigan B10 (29- 8, 99.9) 0- 7 1010 A Union ECAC (22-14, 97.8) 2- 5 1011 A Union ECAC (22-14, 97.8) 3- 5 1018 A Holy Cross AH (18-18, 97.0) 0- 4 1024 A UMass Lowell HE (13-22, 97.1) 0- 4 1025 A UMass Lowell HE (13-22, 97.1) 3- 4 1031 A Bentley AH (23-12, 97.6) 1- 3 1101 A Bentley AH (23-12, 97.6) 2- 7 1107 H RIT AH (17-17, 96.6) 1- 4 1108 H RIT AH (17-17, 96.6) 2- 3 1121 H Canisius AH (17-16, 96.6) 3- 4 1122 H Canisius AH (17-16, 96.6) 1- 5 1128 A Rob Morris AH (17-20, 96.4) 1- 3 1129 H Rob Morris AH (17-20, 96.4) 1- 1 1206 H Holy Cross AH (18-18, 97.0) 1- 4 102 H North Dakota HE (31- 9, 99.6) 0- 2 103 H North Dakota HE (31- 9, 99.6) 1- 6 109 A Army AH (12-17, 96.9) 3- 0 110 A Army AH (12-17, 96.9) 0- 5 116 A Niagara AH (13-23, 96.1) 3- 0 117 H Niagara AH (13-23, 96.1) 4- 2 123 A Canisius AH (17-16, 96.6) 3- 4 124 A Canisius AH (17-16, 96.6) 0- 5 130 A RIT AH (17-17, 96.6) 2- 2 131 A RIT AH (17-17, 96.6) 1- 3 206 H Sacred Heart AH (23-14, 97.4) 1- 5 207 H Sacred Heart AH (23-14, 97.4) 2- 1 213 H Air Force AH (19-14, 97.2) 3- 3 214 H Air Force AH (19-14, 97.2) 4- 5 220 A Niagara AH (13-23, 96.1) 3- 2 221 H Niagara AH (13-23, 96.1) 1- 3 227 H Rob Morris AH (17-20, 96.4) 3- 5 228 A Rob Morris AH (17-20, 96.4) 1- 4 303 H Canisius AH (17-16, 96.6) 5- 2 306 H Bentley AH (23-12, 97.6) 3- 4 307 H Bentley AH (23-12, 97.6) 0- 6
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
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Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
1003 H Michigan 1- 1 0 -5 ++ 4.52
1004 H Michigan 0- 7 -7 -5 - -2.48
1010 A Union 2- 5 -3 -2 -0.52
1011 A Union 3- 5 -2 -2 0.48
1018 A Holy Cross 0- 4 -4 -2 - -2.31
1024 A UMass Lowell 0- 4 -4 -2 - -2.24
1025 A UMass Lowell 3- 4 -1 -2 0.76
1031 A Bentley 1- 3 -2 -2 0.30
1101 A Bentley 2- 7 -5 -2 - -2.70
1107 H RIT 1- 4 -3 -1 -1.73
1108 H RIT 2- 3 -1 -1 0.27
1121 H Canisius 3- 4 -1 -1 0.26
1122 H Canisius 1- 5 -4 -1 - -2.74
1128 A Rob Morris 1- 3 -2 -1 -0.91
1129 H Rob Morris 1- 1 0 -1 1.07
1206 H Holy Cross 1- 4 -3 -2 -1.33
102 H North Dakota 0- 2 -2 -4 + 2.23
103 H North Dakota 1- 6 -5 -4 -0.77
109 A Army 3- 0 3 -2 ++ 4.51
110 A Army 0- 5 -5 -2 - -3.49
116 A Niagara 3- 0 3 -1 + 3.75
117 H Niagara 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.73
123 A Canisius 3- 4 -1 -1 0.28
124 A Canisius 0- 5 -5 -1 - -3.72
130 A RIT 2- 2 0 -1 1.29
131 A RIT 1- 3 -2 -1 -0.71
206 H Sacred Heart 1- 5 -4 -2 -1.93
207 H Sacred Heart 2- 1 1 -2 + 3.07
213 H Air Force 3- 3 0 -2 1.79
214 H Air Force 4- 5 -1 -2 0.79
220 A Niagara 3- 2 1 -1 1.75
221 H Niagara 1- 3 -2 -1 -1.27
227 H Rob Morris 3- 5 -2 -1 -0.93
228 A Rob Morris 1- 4 -3 -1 -1.91
303 H Canisius 5- 2 3 -1 ++ 4.26
306 H Bentley 3- 4 -1 -2 1.28
307 H Bentley 0- 6 -6 -2 - -3.72
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 1004 H Michigan 0- 7 -7 -5 - -2.48 1018 A Holy Cross 0- 4 -4 -2 - -2.31 1024 A UMass Lowell 0- 4 -4 -2 - -2.24 1101 A Bentley 2- 7 -5 -2 - -2.70 1122 H Canisius 1- 5 -4 -1 - -2.74 110 A Army 0- 5 -5 -2 - -3.49 124 A Canisius 0- 5 -5 -1 - -3.72 307 H Bentley 0- 6 -6 -2 - -3.72 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 1003 H Michigan 1- 1 0 -5 ++ 4.52 109 A Army 3- 0 3 -2 ++ 4.51 303 H Canisius 5- 2 3 -1 ++ 4.26 102 H North Dakota 0- 2 -2 -4 + 2.23 116 A Niagara 3- 0 3 -1 + 3.75 117 H Niagara 4- 2 2 -1 + 2.73 207 H Sacred Heart 2- 1 1 -2 + 3.07 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 36.29
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Michigan (29- 8, 99.9) 0- 7 -0.02 4.63 -0.01 0.98 -0.01
3 A Union (22-14, 97.8) 2- 5 -2.08 2.57 0.01 0.98 -1.01
3 A Union (22-14, 97.8) 3- 5 -2.08 2.57 0.01 0.98 -1.01
3 A Holy Cross (18-18, 97.0) 0- 4 -2.87 1.78 0.01 0.98 -1.40
3 A UMass Lowell (13-22, 97.1) 0- 4 -2.80 1.85 0.01 0.98 -1.37
3 A UMass Lowell (13-22, 97.1) 3- 4 -2.80 1.85 0.01 0.98 -1.37
3 A Bentley (23-12, 97.6) 1- 3 -2.26 2.39 0.01 0.98 -1.10
3 A Bentley (23-12, 97.6) 2- 7 -2.26 2.39 0.01 0.98 -1.10
3 H RIT (17-17, 96.6) 1- 4 -3.27 1.38 -0.01 0.98 -1.61
3 H RIT (17-17, 96.6) 2- 3 -3.27 1.38 -0.01 0.98 -1.61
3 H Canisius (17-16, 96.6) 3- 4 -3.28 1.37 -0.01 0.98 -1.61
3 H Canisius (17-16, 96.6) 1- 5 -3.28 1.37 -0.01 0.98 -1.61
3 A Rob Morris (17-20, 96.4) 1- 3 -3.46 1.18 0.01 0.98 -1.69
3 H Rob Morris (17-20, 96.4) 1- 1 -3.46 1.18 -0.01 0.98 0.00
3 H Holy Cross (18-18, 97.0) 1- 4 -2.87 1.78 -0.01 0.98 -1.41
3 H North Dakota (31- 9, 99.6) 0- 2 -0.31 4.34 -0.01 0.98 -0.16
3 H North Dakota (31- 9, 99.6) 1- 6 -0.31 4.34 -0.01 0.98 -0.16
3 A Army (12-17, 96.9) 3- 0 -3.04 1.60 0.01 0.98 3.17
3 A Army (12-17, 96.9) 0- 5 -3.04 1.60 0.01 0.98 -1.49
3 A Niagara (13-23, 96.1) 3- 0 -3.81 1.00 0.01 0.98 1.98
3 H Niagara (13-23, 96.1) 4- 2 -3.81 1.00 -0.01 0.98 1.94
3 A Canisius (17-16, 96.6) 3- 4 -3.28 1.37 0.01 0.98 -1.60
3 A Canisius (17-16, 96.6) 0- 5 -3.28 1.37 0.01 0.98 -1.60
3 A RIT (17-17, 96.6) 2- 2 -3.27 1.38 0.01 0.98 0.00
3 A RIT (17-17, 96.6) 1- 3 -3.27 1.38 0.01 0.98 -1.60
3 H Sacred Heart (23-14, 97.4) 1- 5 -2.47 2.18 -0.01 0.98 -1.22
3 H Sacred Heart (23-14, 97.4) 2- 1 -2.47 2.18 -0.01 0.98 4.25
3 H Air Force (19-14, 97.2) 3- 3 -2.75 1.90 -0.01 0.98 0.00
3 H Air Force (19-14, 97.2) 4- 5 -2.75 1.90 -0.01 0.98 -1.35
3 A Niagara (13-23, 96.1) 3- 2 -3.81 1.00 0.01 0.98 1.98
3 H Niagara (13-23, 96.1) 1- 3 -3.81 1.00 -0.01 0.98 -1.87
3 H Rob Morris (17-20, 96.4) 3- 5 -3.46 1.18 -0.01 0.98 -1.70
3 A Rob Morris (17-20, 96.4) 1- 4 -3.46 1.18 0.01 0.98 -1.69
3 H Canisius (17-16, 96.6) 5- 2 -3.28 1.37 -0.01 0.98 2.67
3 H Bentley (23-12, 97.6) 3- 4 -2.26 2.39 -0.01 0.98 -1.11
3 H Bentley (23-12, 97.6) 0- 6 -2.26 2.39 -0.01 0.98 -1.11
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-18.61
|
winning pts = 15.9907 losing points = -34.6028
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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