Michigan State
W-L: (18-33) PR = 90.5858Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 206 A BYU B12 (19-29, 91.4) 8- 4 206 H Auburn SEC (29-27, 94.8) 6- 9 207 A Pittsburgh ACC (26-25, 90.7) 9- 7 207 A Longwood BSO ( 0-11, 87.8) 4- 1 208 H Clemson ACC (33-24, 93.9) 5- 2 213 H Virginia Tech ACC (48-12, 97.0) 7- 6 213 A Charlotte AC (29-27, 92.3) 0- 8 214 A Charlotte AC (29-27, 92.3) 13-16 214 H Villanova BE ( 0-19, 88.0) 9- 8 220 H Louisiana SB (28-28, 93.2) 1- 6 220 A LSU SEC (37-21, 97.0) 0- 9 221 A Howard MEAC ( 2- 9, 88.9) 6- 0 221 A LSU SEC (37-21, 97.0) 4- 5 222 H Howard MEAC ( 2- 9, 88.9) 5- 0 227 A Murray State MV ( 2- 7, 89.9) 5- 6 227 A Kentucky SEC (28-27, 93.7) 2-10 228 H Murray State MV ( 2- 7, 89.9) 7- 4 228 A Kentucky SEC (28-27, 93.7) 1- 6 301 A Dayton A10 ( 1- 8, 87.7) 2- 1 301 A Dayton A10 ( 1- 8, 87.7) 2- 1 305 A NC State ACC (28-26, 92.8) 3- 4 306 H Syracuse ACC (19-27, 88.9) 10- 6 306 A Mercer SO ( 3-11, 86.0) 11- 2 307 A Stetson ASUN ( 1-13, 91.5) 5- 4 313 A UCLA B10 (52-11, 99.5) 0-10 314 A UCLA B10 (52-11, 99.5) 10-18 315 A UCLA B10 (52-11, 99.5) 2-10 320 H Nebraska B10 (51-10, 98.7) 0- 2 321 H Nebraska B10 (51-10, 98.7) 0-13 321 H Nebraska B10 (51-10, 98.7) 1- 4 324 H Toledo MA ( 2-13, 89.9) 3- 5 327 H Wisconsin B10 (32-22, 93.8) 0- 6 328 H Utah Tech WAC (20-31, 89.2) 0- 4 329 A Ohio State B10 (24-28, 93.8) 0-10 401 H Dayton A10 ( 1- 8, 87.7) 4- 5 403 H Illinois B10 (16-39, 90.0) 6-12 403 H Illinois B10 (16-39, 90.0) 7- 0 408 A Oakland HL ( 1- 5, 91.9) 2- 5 410 A Rutgers B10 (28-27, 93.4) 2-10 411 A Rutgers B10 (28-27, 93.4) 9- 6 412 A Rutgers B10 (28-27, 93.4) 4- 7 417 A Northwestern B10 (29-20, 95.4) 0-10 418 A Northwestern B10 (29-20, 95.4) 7- 8 419 A Northwestern B10 (29-20, 95.4) 0- 8 421 H Western Michigan MA ( 2- 8, 90.8) 9- 8 422 A Notre Dame ACC (24-29, 93.0) 1- 9 424 H Maryland B10 (19-30, 90.3) 4- 3 425 A NC State ACC (28-26, 92.8) 426 A Georgia State SB (24-31, 91.4) 2- 3 501 H Michigan B10 (35-22, 94.8) 1- 6 502 H Michigan B10 (35-22, 94.8) 1- 9 503 H Michigan B10 (35-22, 94.8) 1- 3
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
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Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
206 A BYU 8- 4 4 -2 ++ 5.58
206 H Auburn 6- 9 -3 -3 0.42
207 A Pittsburgh 9- 7 2 -1 + 2.87
207 A Longwood 4- 1 3 2 0.99
208 H Clemson 5- 2 3 -3 ++ 5.59
213 H Virginia Tech 7- 6 1 -6 +++ 6.70
213 A Charlotte 0- 8 -8 -2 -- -5.54
214 A Charlotte 13-16 -3 -2 -0.54
214 H Villanova 9- 8 1 3 - -2.38
220 H Louisiana 1- 6 -5 -2 - -3.11
220 A LSU 0- 9 -9 -7 -1.82
221 A Howard 6- 0 6 1 ++ 5.04
221 A LSU 4- 5 -1 -7 +++ 6.18
222 H Howard 5- 0 5 2 + 2.56
227 A Murray State 5- 6 -1 0 -0.90
227 A Kentucky 2-10 -8 -4 -- -4.11
228 H Murray State 7- 4 3 1 1.61
228 A Kentucky 1- 6 -5 -4 -1.11
301 A Dayton 2- 1 1 2 -1.11
301 A Dayton 2- 1 1 2 -1.11
305 A NC State 3- 4 -1 -3 1.93
306 H Syracuse 10- 6 4 2 1.56
306 A Mercer 11- 2 9 4 ++ 5.20
307 A Stetson 5- 4 1 -2 + 2.66
313 A UCLA 0-10 -10 -10 -0.30
314 A UCLA 10-18 -8 -10 1.70
315 A UCLA 2-10 -8 -10 1.70
320 H Nebraska 0- 2 -2 -7 ++ 5.36
321 H Nebraska 0-13 -13 -7 -- -5.64
321 H Nebraska 1- 4 -3 -7 ++ 4.36
324 H Toledo 3- 5 -2 1 - -3.47
327 H Wisconsin 0- 6 -6 -2 - -3.50
328 H Utah Tech 0- 4 -4 2 --- -6.14
329 A Ohio State 0-10 -10 -4 -- -5.99
401 H Dayton 4- 5 -1 4 -- -4.59
403 H Illinois 6-12 -6 1 --- -7.33
403 H Illinois 7- 0 7 1 ++ 5.67
408 A Oakland 2- 5 -3 -2 -0.93
410 A Rutgers 2-10 -8 -4 -- -4.40
411 A Rutgers 9- 6 3 -4 +++ 6.60
412 A Rutgers 4- 7 -3 -4 0.60
417 A Northwestern 0-10 -10 -6 -- -4.42
418 A Northwestern 7- 8 -1 -6 ++ 4.58
419 A Northwestern 0- 8 -8 -6 - -2.42
421 H Western Michigan 9- 8 1 0 0.50
422 A Notre Dame 1- 9 -8 -3 -- -4.85
424 H Maryland 4- 3 1 1 -0.07
426 A Georgia State 2- 3 -1 -2 0.56
501 H Michigan 1- 6 -5 -3 -1.57
502 H Michigan 1- 9 -8 -3 -- -4.57
503 H Michigan 1- 3 -2 -3 1.43
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 328 H Utah Tech 0- 4 -4 2 --- -6.14 403 H Illinois 6-12 -6 1 --- -7.33 213 A Charlotte 0- 8 -8 -2 -- -5.54 227 A Kentucky 2-10 -8 -4 -- -4.11 321 H Nebraska 0-13 -13 -7 -- -5.64 329 A Ohio State 0-10 -10 -4 -- -5.99 401 H Dayton 4- 5 -1 4 -- -4.59 410 A Rutgers 2-10 -8 -4 -- -4.40 417 A Northwestern 0-10 -10 -6 -- -4.42 422 A Notre Dame 1- 9 -8 -3 -- -4.85 502 H Michigan 1- 9 -8 -3 -- -4.57 214 H Villanova 9- 8 1 3 - -2.38 220 H Louisiana 1- 6 -5 -2 - -3.11 324 H Toledo 3- 5 -2 1 - -3.47 327 H Wisconsin 0- 6 -6 -2 - -3.50 419 A Northwestern 0- 8 -8 -6 - -2.42 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 213 H Virginia Tech 7- 6 1 -6 +++ 6.70 221 A LSU 4- 5 -1 -7 +++ 6.18 411 A Rutgers 9- 6 3 -4 +++ 6.60 206 A BYU 8- 4 4 -2 ++ 5.58 208 H Clemson 5- 2 3 -3 ++ 5.59 221 A Howard 6- 0 6 1 ++ 5.04 306 A Mercer 11- 2 9 4 ++ 5.20 320 H Nebraska 0- 2 -2 -7 ++ 5.36 321 H Nebraska 1- 4 -3 -7 ++ 4.36 403 H Illinois 7- 0 7 1 ++ 5.67 418 A Northwestern 7- 8 -1 -6 ++ 4.58 207 A Pittsburgh 9- 7 2 -1 + 2.87 222 H Howard 5- 0 5 2 + 2.56 307 A Stetson 5- 4 1 -2 + 2.66 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 25.20
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 A BYU (19-29, 91.4) 8- 4 -8.48 10.89 0.74 0.49 11.50
3 H Auburn (29-27, 94.8) 6- 9 -5.15 14.22 -0.74 0.49 -1.46
3 A Pittsburgh (26-25, 90.7) 9- 7 -9.19 10.18 0.74 0.49 10.80
3 A Longwood ( 0-11, 87.8) 4- 1 -12.07 7.30 0.74 0.49 7.95
3 H Clemson (33-24, 93.9) 5- 2 -5.99 13.38 -0.74 0.49 12.50
3 H Virginia Tech (48-12, 97.0) 7- 6 -2.87 16.50 -0.74 0.49 15.57
3 A Charlotte (29-27, 92.3) 0- 8 -7.60 11.77 0.74 0.49 -1.69
3 A Charlotte (29-27, 92.3) 13-16 -7.60 11.77 0.74 0.49 -1.69
3 H Villanova ( 0-19, 88.0) 9- 8 -11.95 7.42 -0.74 0.49 6.60
3 H Louisiana (28-28, 93.2) 1- 6 -6.68 12.69 -0.74 0.49 -1.83
3 A LSU (37-21, 97.0) 0- 9 -2.88 16.49 0.74 0.49 -0.53
3 A Howard ( 2- 9, 88.9) 6- 0 -11.02 8.35 0.74 0.49 8.99
3 A LSU (37-21, 97.0) 4- 5 -2.88 16.49 0.74 0.49 -0.53
3 H Howard ( 2- 9, 88.9) 5- 0 -11.02 8.35 -0.74 0.49 7.52
3 A Murray State ( 2- 7, 89.9) 5- 6 -9.96 9.41 0.74 0.49 -2.28
3 A Kentucky (28-27, 93.7) 2-10 -6.17 13.20 0.74 0.49 -1.34
3 H Murray State ( 2- 7, 89.9) 7- 4 -9.96 9.41 -0.74 0.49 8.57
3 A Kentucky (28-27, 93.7) 1- 6 -6.17 13.20 0.74 0.49 -1.34
3 A Dayton ( 1- 8, 87.7) 2- 1 -12.16 7.21 0.74 0.49 7.86
3 A Dayton ( 1- 8, 87.7) 2- 1 -12.16 7.21 0.74 0.49 7.86
3 A NC State (28-26, 92.8) 3- 4 -7.13 12.24 0.74 0.49 -1.58
3 H Syracuse (19-27, 88.9) 10- 6 -11.02 8.35 -0.74 0.49 7.52
3 A Mercer ( 3-11, 86.0) 11- 2 -13.85 5.52 0.74 0.49 6.19
3 A Stetson ( 1-13, 91.5) 5- 4 -8.40 10.97 0.74 0.49 11.58
3 A UCLA (52-11, 99.5) 0-10 -0.35 19.02 0.74 0.49 -0.10
3 A UCLA (52-11, 99.5) 10-18 -0.35 19.02 0.74 0.49 -0.10
3 A UCLA (52-11, 99.5) 2-10 -0.35 19.02 0.74 0.49 -0.10
3 H Nebraska (51-10, 98.7) 0- 2 -1.22 18.15 -0.74 0.49 -0.48
3 H Nebraska (51-10, 98.7) 0-13 -1.22 18.15 -0.74 0.49 -0.48
3 H Nebraska (51-10, 98.7) 1- 4 -1.22 18.15 -0.74 0.49 -0.48
3 H Toledo ( 2-13, 89.9) 3- 5 -10.04 9.33 -0.74 0.49 -2.67
3 H Wisconsin (32-22, 93.8) 0- 6 -6.07 13.30 -0.74 0.49 -1.68
3 H Utah Tech (20-31, 89.2) 0- 4 -10.71 8.66 -0.74 0.49 -2.83
3 A Ohio State (24-28, 93.8) 0-10 -6.05 13.32 0.74 0.49 -1.31
3 H Dayton ( 1- 8, 87.7) 4- 5 -12.16 7.21 -0.74 0.49 -3.19
3 H Illinois (16-39, 90.0) 6-12 -9.90 9.47 -0.74 0.49 -2.63
3 H Illinois (16-39, 90.0) 7- 0 -9.90 9.47 -0.74 0.49 8.63
3 A Oakland ( 1- 5, 91.9) 2- 5 -7.98 11.39 0.74 0.49 -1.79
3 A Rutgers (28-27, 93.4) 2-10 -6.46 12.91 0.74 0.49 -1.41
3 A Rutgers (28-27, 93.4) 9- 6 -6.46 12.91 0.74 0.49 13.50
3 A Rutgers (28-27, 93.4) 4- 7 -6.46 12.91 0.74 0.49 -1.41
3 A Northwestern (29-20, 95.4) 0-10 -4.47 14.90 0.74 0.49 -0.92
3 A Northwestern (29-20, 95.4) 7- 8 -4.47 14.90 0.74 0.49 -0.92
3 A Northwestern (29-20, 95.4) 0- 8 -4.47 14.90 0.74 0.49 -0.92
3 H Western Michig ( 2- 8, 90.8) 9- 8 -9.07 10.30 -0.74 0.49 9.45
3 A Notre Dame (24-29, 93.0) 1- 9 -6.91 12.46 0.74 0.49 -1.52
3 H Maryland (19-30, 90.3) 4- 3 -9.64 9.73 -0.74 0.49 8.88
3 A Georgia State (24-31, 91.4) 2- 3 -8.50 10.87 0.74 0.49 -1.92
3 H Michigan (35-22, 94.8) 1- 6 -5.14 14.23 -0.74 0.49 -1.45
3 H Michigan (35-22, 94.8) 1- 9 -5.14 14.23 -0.74 0.49 -1.45
3 H Michigan (35-22, 94.8) 1- 3 -5.14 14.23 -0.74 0.49 -1.45
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125.95
|
winning pts = 171.4551 losing points = -45.5067
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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