Tarleton State
W-L: (35-22) PR = 91.4731Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 206 A Youngstown State HL ( 0- 2, 90.5) 8- 7 206 A Furman SO ( 0- 8, 84.7) 17- 5 207 H Furman SO ( 0- 8, 84.7) 7- 2 207 A Gardner-Webb BSO ( 2- 4, 87.4) 14- 3 208 H Youngstown State HL ( 0- 2, 90.5) 7- 6 213 H Colgate PAT ( 1- 8, 86.0) 14- 5 213 H South Dakota State SM ( 8-14, 92.0) 12- 7 214 H Colgate PAT ( 1- 8, 86.0) 20- 9 215 H Stephen F. Austin SL ( 6- 5, 92.9) 7- 3 215 H Stephen F. Austin SL ( 6- 5, 92.9) 2- 6 219 H Tulsa AC (20-31, 91.8) 7- 8 219 H Tulsa AC (20-31, 91.8) 3- 4 220 H Pittsburgh ACC (26-25, 90.7) 5- 8 220 H Texas A&M-Corpus Chris SL ( 2-18, 87.6) 9- 6 221 H Army PAT ( 4- 9, 91.1) 0-10 222 A Nebraska B10 (51-10, 98.7) 6- 9 227 A Houston Christian SL ( 2-13, 87.9) 6- 4 227 A New Mexico MW (26-27, 92.2) 6- 3 228 H UTEP CUSA (13-37, 88.6) 7- 2 228 A New Mexico MW (26-27, 92.2) 0- 5 301 A UTEP CUSA (13-37, 88.6) 3-16 301 A UTEP CUSA (13-37, 88.6) 3-16 305 A Saint Francis NE ( 0-11, 86.7) 11- 0 305 A Texas State SB (36-23, 93.6) 6- 5 306 A Texas State SB (36-23, 93.6) 2- 8 306 H Texas A&M SEC (38-19, 96.8) 2-15 313 H Lehigh PAT ( 1- 6, 89.1) 8- 1 313 A Elon CA ( 1-14, 87.0) 7- 3 314 A UNC Greensboro SO ( 7- 9, 91.1) 0- 8 314 A Lehigh PAT ( 1- 6, 89.1) 1- 9 315 A Elon CA ( 1-14, 87.0) 2- 9 320 H Rhode Island A10 ( 1- 5, 90.1) 11- 1 320 H Rhode Island A10 ( 1- 5, 90.1) 1-13 321 H Rhode Island A10 ( 1- 5, 90.1) 11- 3 321 H Rhode Island A10 ( 1- 5, 90.1) 2- 1 324 H Texas Tech B12 (60-11, 99.2) 0-12 327 H Florida Atlantic AC (33-21, 94.7) 6- 5 328 H North Carolina ACC (31-19, 93.8) 4- 3 328 H Texas Tech B12 (60-11, 99.2) 6-10 402 H Abilene Christian WAC ( 8-41, 87.7) 8- 0 403 H Abilene Christian WAC ( 8-41, 87.7) 1- 0 403 H Abilene Christian WAC ( 8-41, 87.7) 0- 7 408 H North Texas AC (31-24, 92.5) 6- 1 410 H Southern Utah WAC (22-27, 90.7) 10- 3 410 H Southern Utah WAC (22-27, 90.7) 7- 1 411 H Southern Utah WAC (22-27, 90.7) 8- 2 417 A Utah Valley WAC (28-21, 91.3) 4- 0 417 A Utah Valley WAC (28-21, 91.3) 15- 1 418 A Utah Valley WAC (28-21, 91.3) 7- 2 422 A North Texas AC (31-24, 92.5) 2- 8 424 H Utah Tech WAC (20-31, 89.2) 2- 1 424 H Utah Tech WAC (20-31, 89.2) 8- 3 425 H Utah Tech WAC (20-31, 89.2) 11- 0 428 H Florida SEC (51-13, 97.7) 2- 4 501 A California Baptist WAC (37-19, 93.2) 0- 7 501 A California Baptist WAC (37-19, 93.2) 1- 0 502 A California Baptist WAC (37-19, 93.2) 6- 7
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
206 A Youngstown State 8- 7 1 0 0.74
206 A Furman 17- 5 12 6 ++ 5.95
207 H Furman 7- 2 5 8 - -2.53
207 A Gardner-Webb 14- 3 11 3 +++ 7.63
208 H Youngstown State 7- 6 1 2 -0.74
213 H Colgate 14- 5 9 6 + 2.77
213 H South Dakota State 12- 7 5 0 ++ 4.83
214 H Colgate 20- 9 11 6 ++ 4.77
215 H Stephen F. Austin 7- 3 4 -1 ++ 4.67
215 H Stephen F. Austin 2- 6 -4 -1 - -3.33
219 H Tulsa 7- 8 -1 0 -1.38
219 H Tulsa 3- 4 -1 0 -1.38
220 H Pittsburgh 5- 8 -3 2 -- -4.50
220 H Texas A&M-Corpus Chris 9- 6 3 5 -1.66
221 H Army 0-10 -10 1 --- -11.16
222 A Nebraska 6- 9 -3 -8 ++ 4.95
227 A Houston Christian 6- 4 2 3 -0.79
227 A New Mexico 6- 3 3 -1 ++ 4.46
228 H UTEP 7- 2 5 4 1.42
228 A New Mexico 0- 5 -5 -1 - -3.54
301 A UTEP 3-16 -13 2 --- -15.09
301 A UTEP 3-16 -13 2 --- -15.09
305 A Saint Francis 11- 0 11 4 +++ 7.01
305 A Texas State 6- 5 1 -3 + 3.88
306 A Texas State 2- 8 -6 -3 - -3.12
306 H Texas A&M 2-15 -13 -5 --- -8.43
313 H Lehigh 8- 1 7 3 + 3.93
313 A Elon 7- 3 4 4 0.27
314 A UNC Greensboro 0- 8 -8 0 --- -7.58
314 A Lehigh 1- 9 -8 2 --- -9.58
315 A Elon 2- 9 -7 4 --- -10.73
320 H Rhode Island 11- 1 10 2 +++ 7.92
320 H Rhode Island 1-13 -12 2 --- -14.08
321 H Rhode Island 11- 3 8 2 ++ 5.92
321 H Rhode Island 2- 1 1 2 -1.08
324 H Texas Tech 0-12 -12 -7 -- -4.98
327 H Florida Atlantic 6- 5 1 -2 + 3.44
328 H North Carolina 4- 3 1 -2 + 2.57
328 H Texas Tech 6-10 -4 -7 + 3.02
402 H Abilene Christian 8- 0 8 4 + 3.52
403 H Abilene Christian 0- 7 -7 4 --- -11.48
408 H North Texas 6- 1 5 0 ++ 5.24
410 H Southern Utah 10- 3 7 2 ++ 5.49
410 H Southern Utah 7- 1 6 2 ++ 4.49
411 H Southern Utah 8- 2 6 2 ++ 4.49
417 A Utah Valley 4- 0 4 -1 ++ 4.59
417 A Utah Valley 15- 1 14 -1 +++ 14.59
418 A Utah Valley 7- 2 5 -1 ++ 5.59
422 A North Texas 2- 8 -6 -2 -- -4.27
424 H Utah Tech 2- 1 1 3 - -2.02
424 H Utah Tech 8- 3 5 3 1.98
425 H Utah Tech 11- 0 11 3 +++ 7.98
428 H Florida 2- 4 -2 -5 + 3.48
501 A California Baptist 0- 7 -7 -2 -- -4.52
502 A California Baptist 6- 7 -1 -2 1.48
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 221 H Army 0-10 -10 1 --- -11.16 301 A UTEP 3-16 -13 2 --- -15.09 301 A UTEP 3-16 -13 2 --- -15.09 306 H Texas A&M 2-15 -13 -5 --- -8.43 314 A UNC Greensboro 0- 8 -8 0 --- -7.58 314 A Lehigh 1- 9 -8 2 --- -9.58 315 A Elon 2- 9 -7 4 --- -10.73 320 H Rhode Island 1-13 -12 2 --- -14.08 403 H Abilene Christian 0- 7 -7 4 --- -11.48 220 H Pittsburgh 5- 8 -3 2 -- -4.50 324 H Texas Tech 0-12 -12 -7 -- -4.98 422 A North Texas 2- 8 -6 -2 -- -4.27 501 A California Baptist 0- 7 -7 -2 -- -4.52 207 H Furman 7- 2 5 8 - -2.53 215 H Stephen F. Austin 2- 6 -4 -1 - -3.33 228 A New Mexico 0- 5 -5 -1 - -3.54 306 A Texas State 2- 8 -6 -3 - -3.12 424 H Utah Tech 2- 1 1 3 - -2.02 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 207 A Gardner-Webb 14- 3 11 3 +++ 7.63 305 A Saint Francis 11- 0 11 4 +++ 7.01 320 H Rhode Island 11- 1 10 2 +++ 7.92 417 A Utah Valley 15- 1 14 -1 +++ 14.59 425 H Utah Tech 11- 0 11 3 +++ 7.98 206 A Furman 17- 5 12 6 ++ 5.95 213 H South Dakota State 12- 7 5 0 ++ 4.83 214 H Colgate 20- 9 11 6 ++ 4.77 215 H Stephen F. Austin 7- 3 4 -1 ++ 4.67 222 A Nebraska 6- 9 -3 -8 ++ 4.95 227 A New Mexico 6- 3 3 -1 ++ 4.46 321 H Rhode Island 11- 3 8 2 ++ 5.92 408 H North Texas 6- 1 5 0 ++ 5.24 410 H Southern Utah 10- 3 7 2 ++ 5.49 410 H Southern Utah 7- 1 6 2 ++ 4.49 411 H Southern Utah 8- 2 6 2 ++ 4.49 417 A Utah Valley 4- 0 4 -1 ++ 4.59 418 A Utah Valley 7- 2 5 -1 ++ 5.59 213 H Colgate 14- 5 9 6 + 2.77 305 A Texas State 6- 5 1 -3 + 3.88 313 H Lehigh 8- 1 7 3 + 3.93 327 H Florida Atlantic 6- 5 1 -2 + 3.44 328 H North Carolina 4- 3 1 -2 + 2.57 328 H Texas Tech 6-10 -4 -7 + 3.02 402 H Abilene Christian 8- 0 8 4 + 3.52 428 H Florida 2- 4 -2 -5 + 3.48 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 25.20
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 A Youngstown Sta ( 0- 2, 90.5) 8- 7 -9.43 9.94 0.74 0.44 9.45
3 A Furman ( 0- 8, 84.7) 17- 5 -15.22 4.15 0.74 0.44 4.33
3 H Furman ( 0- 8, 84.7) 7- 2 -15.22 4.15 -0.74 0.44 3.02
3 A Gardner-Webb ( 2- 4, 87.4) 14- 3 -12.54 6.83 0.74 0.44 6.70
3 H Youngstown Sta ( 0- 2, 90.5) 7- 6 -9.43 9.94 -0.74 0.44 8.14
3 H Colgate ( 1- 8, 86.0) 14- 5 -13.92 5.45 -0.74 0.44 4.16
3 H South Dakota S ( 8-14, 92.0) 12- 7 -7.86 11.51 -0.74 0.44 9.53
3 H Colgate ( 1- 8, 86.0) 20- 9 -13.92 5.45 -0.74 0.44 4.16
3 H Stephen F. Aus ( 6- 5, 92.9) 7- 3 -7.02 12.35 -0.74 0.44 10.27
3 H Stephen F. Aus ( 6- 5, 92.9) 2- 6 -7.02 12.35 -0.74 0.44 -1.72
3 H Tulsa (20-31, 91.8) 7- 8 -8.06 11.31 -0.74 0.44 -1.95
3 H Tulsa (20-31, 91.8) 3- 4 -8.06 11.31 -0.74 0.44 -1.95
3 H Pittsburgh (26-25, 90.7) 5- 8 -9.19 10.18 -0.74 0.44 -2.20
3 H Texas A&M-Corp ( 2-18, 87.6) 9- 6 -12.34 7.03 -0.74 0.44 5.56
3 H Army ( 4- 9, 91.1) 0-10 -8.85 10.52 -0.74 0.44 -2.12
3 A Nebraska (51-10, 98.7) 6- 9 -1.22 18.15 0.74 0.44 -0.10
3 A Houston Christ ( 2-13, 87.9) 6- 4 -11.96 7.41 0.74 0.44 7.21
3 A New Mexico (26-27, 92.2) 6- 3 -7.70 11.67 0.74 0.44 10.97
3 H UTEP (13-37, 88.6) 7- 2 -11.26 8.11 -0.74 0.44 6.51
3 A New Mexico (26-27, 92.2) 0- 5 -7.70 11.67 0.74 0.44 -1.54
3 A UTEP (13-37, 88.6) 3-16 -11.26 8.11 0.74 0.44 -2.33
3 A UTEP (13-37, 88.6) 3-16 -11.26 8.11 0.74 0.44 -2.33
3 A Saint Francis ( 0-11, 86.7) 11- 0 -13.16 6.21 0.74 0.44 6.15
3 A Texas State (36-23, 93.6) 6- 5 -6.29 13.08 0.74 0.44 12.22
3 A Texas State (36-23, 93.6) 2- 8 -6.29 13.08 0.74 0.44 -1.23
3 H Texas A&M (38-19, 96.8) 2-15 -3.12 16.25 -0.74 0.44 -0.85
3 H Lehigh ( 1- 6, 89.1) 8- 1 -10.75 8.62 -0.74 0.44 6.96
3 A Elon ( 1-14, 87.0) 7- 3 -12.90 6.47 0.74 0.44 6.38
3 A UNC Greensboro ( 7- 9, 91.1) 0- 8 -8.75 10.62 0.74 0.44 -1.77
3 A Lehigh ( 1- 6, 89.1) 1- 9 -10.75 8.62 0.74 0.44 -2.21
3 A Elon ( 1-14, 87.0) 2- 9 -12.90 6.47 0.74 0.44 -2.69
3 H Rhode Island ( 1- 5, 90.1) 11- 1 -9.77 9.60 -0.74 0.44 7.83
3 H Rhode Island ( 1- 5, 90.1) 1-13 -9.77 9.60 -0.74 0.44 -2.32
3 H Rhode Island ( 1- 5, 90.1) 11- 3 -9.77 9.60 -0.74 0.44 7.83
3 H Rhode Island ( 1- 5, 90.1) 2- 1 -9.77 9.60 -0.74 0.44 7.83
3 H Texas Tech (60-11, 99.2) 0-12 -0.66 18.71 -0.74 0.44 -0.31
3 H Florida Atlant (33-21, 94.7) 6- 5 -5.24 14.13 -0.74 0.44 11.84
3 H North Carolina (31-19, 93.8) 4- 3 -6.11 13.26 -0.74 0.44 11.07
3 H Texas Tech (60-11, 99.2) 6-10 -0.66 18.71 -0.74 0.44 -0.31
3 H Abilene Christ ( 8-41, 87.7) 8- 0 -12.16 7.21 -0.74 0.44 5.72
3 H Abilene Christ ( 8-41, 87.7) 1- 0 -12.16 7.21 -0.74 0.44 5.72
3 H Abilene Christ ( 8-41, 87.7) 0- 7 -12.16 7.21 -0.74 0.44 -2.85
3 H North Texas (31-24, 92.5) 6- 1 -7.44 11.93 -0.74 0.44 9.89
3 H Southern Utah (22-27, 90.7) 10- 3 -9.19 10.18 -0.74 0.44 8.35
3 H Southern Utah (22-27, 90.7) 7- 1 -9.19 10.18 -0.74 0.44 8.35
3 H Southern Utah (22-27, 90.7) 8- 2 -9.19 10.18 -0.74 0.44 8.35
3 A Utah Valley (28-21, 91.3) 4- 0 -8.58 10.79 0.74 0.44 10.20
3 A Utah Valley (28-21, 91.3) 15- 1 -8.58 10.79 0.74 0.44 10.20
3 A Utah Valley (28-21, 91.3) 7- 2 -8.58 10.79 0.74 0.44 10.20
3 A North Texas (31-24, 92.5) 2- 8 -7.44 11.93 0.74 0.44 -1.48
3 H Utah Tech (20-31, 89.2) 2- 1 -10.71 8.66 -0.74 0.44 7.00
3 H Utah Tech (20-31, 89.2) 8- 3 -10.71 8.66 -0.74 0.44 7.00
3 H Utah Tech (20-31, 89.2) 11- 0 -10.71 8.66 -0.74 0.44 7.00
3 H Florida (51-13, 97.7) 2- 4 -2.21 17.16 -0.74 0.44 -0.65
3 A California Bap (37-19, 93.2) 0- 7 -6.69 12.68 0.74 0.44 -1.32
3 A California Bap (37-19, 93.2) 1- 0 -6.69 12.68 0.74 0.44 11.87
3 A California Bap (37-19, 93.2) 6- 7 -6.69 12.68 0.74 0.44 -1.32
------
242.45
|
winning pts = 277.9856 losing points = -35.5336
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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